Review of The Investor’s Manifesto: Preparing for Prosperity, Armageddon, and Everything in Between
William Bernstein presents the readers of his latest book with the distilled essence of investment wisdom. He laments that his previous works may not have connected with the broad audience he had hoped to reach, but the events of the past year encouraged him to give it one more try. There is little in the way of mathematics or complex graphs to confuse the unwary. Sounding like a caring uncle dispensing advice with tough love, Dr. Bernstein drives his points home with laser-like precision. You will not find his narrative peppered with wishy-washy words like maybe, possibly, perhaps, or “kinda like.” Note how he expresses himself in the following examples:
On the importance of saving: “Save as much as you can, and do not stop saving until you die.”
On risk versus return: “[I]n the course of earning those higher returns, your portfolio is going to lose a truckload of money from time to time. If you desire perfect safety, then resign yourself to low returns. It really cannot be any other way.”
On glib explanations of market behavior: “The reason that ‘guru’ is such a popular word is because ‘charlatan’ is so hard to spell.”
On buying low: “[M]ost grizzled veterans will tell you that the best purchases are often made when they feel they are about to throw up.”
On bad behavior: “Our emotions define our humanity…but in the world of finance, they are death itself.”
On performance chasing: “Alas, small investors incessantly chase returns the same way that dogs chase seagulls up and down the beach.”
On overconfidence: “In the investment world, you are not above average. You are likely not even close.”
Clearly, Dr. Bernstein does not consider it his mission to massage your ego. His goal is to make you a better investor, and I find his direct, no nonsense approach very effective. Even experienced investors who feel they have already learned the basics can benefit from this book. In the cacophony of news and opinion we face every day, it is necessary to take a step back every once in a while and convince yourself that you are not getting caught up in the moment and doing foolish things.
In a chapter devoted to building a portfolio, we are reminded that our investments must be tailored to our personal circumstances. To illustrate this, Bernstein introduces us to four hypothetical investors named Young Yvonne, Sheltered Sam, Taxable Ted, and in-Between Ida. As he constructs an appropriate portfolio for each of these individuals with distinctly different ages and backgrounds, we can see how fundamental principles are put to work in the real world. I found this chapter to be the most insightful in the book.
Be forewarned. The author advocates a long-term perspective and the use of low cost index funds. This book does not discuss stock picking tips or options strategies. If you are looking to beat the market, you will be disappointed. Indeed, the author will try to ween you away from what he considers harmful behavior. He will remind you that the goal of investing is not to get rich – it is to not die poor. The danger here is that you may give up your dream of making the big stock market score and spending the rest of your days sipping Mai Tai’s on a beach somewhere. This is not so bad since the odds are that you would have ended up serving Mai Tai’s on a beach somewhere.
Readers of Bernstein’s previous books as well as the works of other investment luminaries like John Bogle, Jason Zweig, and Jonathan Clements, will not find anything here that they haven’t read before. But the presentation is so concise, direct, and effective that it can’t help but reinforce your understanding of those basic investing truths which we too often forget when immersed in bear market events. Of all the investments I have made over the years, I consider the purchase of this book one of my better ones.
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Product Description:
A timeless approach to investing wisely over an investment lifetime
With the current market maelstrom as a background, this timely guide describes just how to plan a lifetime of investing, in good times and bad, discussing stocks and bonds as well as the relationship between risk and return.
Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, The Investor’s Manifesto will help you understand the nuts and bolts of executing a lifetime investment plan, including: how to survive dealing with the investment industry, the practical meaning of market efficiency, how much to save, how to maintain discipline in the face of panics and manias, and what vehicles to use to achieve financial security and freedom.
- Written by bestselling author William J. Bernstein, well known for his insights on how individual investors can manage their personal wealth and retirement funds wisely
- Examines how the financial landscape has radically altered in the past two years, and what investors should do about it
- Contains practical insights that the everyday investor can understand
- Focuses on the concept of Pascal’s Wager-identifying and avoiding worst-case scenarios, and planning investment decisions on that basis
With The Investor’s Manifesto as your guide, you’ll quickly discover the timeless investment approaches that can put you in a better position to prosper over time.
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